Why the smartest signing is usually the boring one

Transfer fees are paid for highlights. Availability is given away for free. That mismatch is the single most reliable inefficiency in the market, and it has been hiding in plain sight for years.

Availability is a skill

A player who is fit for fifty games a season is not lucky. Staying fit is a combination of movement, decision-making, and self-management — all of which are skills, and none of which photograph well. So they get priced as if they were luck.

The most underrated stat in football is the one that says a player simply turned up.

The boring multiplier

A spectacular player available for half a season delivers a handful of unforgettable afternoons and a lot of absence. A merely good player available all season delivers a baseline that the whole team can be built around.

Build around the boring one. Let the rivals overpay for the moments.